Report: Online retail could reach $156B in 2009

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Online retail sales will likely keep climbing in 2009, even in the recession.

According to projections from Forrester Research, U.S. online retail sales are expected to rise 11 percent to $156 billion this year, excluding revenue from travel. However, that will mark a slowdown in the overall growth rate, which was 13 percent in 2008, when online retail sales totaled $141 billion, Forrester says.

Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru said the majority of the 2009 growth in online spending will come at the expense of physical stores. She expects more consumer dollars to be spent online because it's easier for people to comparison shop and to find what they're looking for.

Online sales are expected to make up 7 percent of overall retail revenue in 2009, compared with 6 percent in 2008.

Mulpuru thinks that Web-based retailer Amazon.com Inc. is primed to benefit. However, some big retailers with a Web presence, such as Best Buy Co. and Macy's Inc., could continue to capture a disproportionate share, since consumers are familiar with those brand names.

Forrester arrives at its projections by extrapolating from the results on mail and online surveys that ask consumers about their shopping and spending habits. The 2009 online retail sales estimate is part of a broader set of projections due to be released Monday.