TIMES NOW Politics presents National Poll Projection, in association with C VOTER
October 17, 2013
The TIMES NOW-India-TV- C Voter presented National Poll Projection on 29th July, 2013, which revealed some startling results & key take outs. Based on the research done by C Voter across the country, National Poll Projection seemed to have captured the pulse of the Nation. Now, with the recent developments on the prime ministerial candidates of the two major political formations, what is the current mood of the Nation? Arnab Goswami, Editor-in-Chief of TIMES NOW along with India’s biggest Psephologists & political analysts dissected the fresh set of numbers; the Indian electorate certainly seemed to have given out surprises, were the elections held today.
- BJP gains an edge, but no wave seems evident
- BJP is 110 seats short of half way mark
- BJP gains from July’13 position but gains appear to be moderate
- Nitish Kumar seems to be a big loser in Bihar, while there appears to be a revival for Lalu
- BJP's gains moderately in U.P. However, Congress is staring at losses.
- Jayalalitha comes out trumps in Tamil Nadu
- Left Front revival in Kerala.
- Congress-NCP suffers losses in Maharashtra.
- Congress improves its position in Karnataka.
- Congress loses A.P. as Jagan gains ground.
- Congress maintains stronghold in Assam.
It seems regional strap will decide who will rule Delhi. According to the TIMES NOW- C Voter survey if the parliamentary elections were to be held now, a hung parliament where NDA has slight edge over UPA seems to be emerging.
The survey projects NDA getting 186 seats, compared to UPA which is projected to get 117 seats, a downswing from the 259 seats that the ruling combine got in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. In 2009, the NDA had secured 159 seats. But Narendra Modi’s Projection as PM candidate does not seem to have given BJP lead NDA enough steam to cross the 272 mark.
The key to power at the Centre will be held by "Others", consisting of mainly regional parties, who are projected to get 240 out of a total of 543 Lok Sabha seats, says the C Voter survey. These include the AIADMK, SP, BSP, Left Front, Trinamool Congress, RJD, BJD, YSR, Congress and TRS.
The survey projects the NDA to get 35% vote share, compared to 27% for UPA, and 38% for others.
The C Voter survey has included BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, RPI(Athawale), Nationalist People's Party of Meghalaya and Haryana Janhit Congress in the NDA, while the UPA constitutes the Congress, NCP, RLD, JMM, Muslim League, National Conference and Kerala Congress (Mani).
The ruling Congress, which had won 206 Lok Sabha seats in 2009, is projected to win only 102 seats this time, while the main opposition BJP which had won 116 seats in 2009, is projected to win 162 seats this time, says the survey.
Among 'Others', the survey predicts 32 Lok Sabha seats for Left Front, 25 for Samajwadi Party, 28 for Jayalalithaa's AIADMK, 31 for Mayawati's BSP, 23 for Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress and 14 for Lalu Prasad's RJD.
YSR Congress and Telangana Rashtra Samithi are projected to win 13 seats each in AP, says the survey.
The ruling Janata Dal (United) in Bihar which had won 20 seats in 2009, is projected to win only nine seats, while the DMK's seat share is projected to come down from 18 to 5 in Tamil Nadu.